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Market specialists have voiced significant doubt regarding bullish statements that American energy majors will rapidly commit tens of billions of dollars to revive the country's broken energy sector.

Requirement of Absolute Guarantees

Absent an solid promise of full reimbursement from the Washington, experts believe international firms to proceed with extreme caution.

“It seems hasty to comment on any potential investments,” a spokesperson said this weekend.

The optimistic timeframe of less than 18 months has been publicly proposed. Nevertheless, industry projections paint a more cautious outlook.

A More Realistic Outlook

“It is likely going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” commented one chief investment officer.

Experts believe energy firms would likely spend:

• Year one: Sorting through new operating agreements.
• The second year: Beginning overhaul of infrastructure.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to boost output.

This suggests an increase of around half a million barrels per day perhaps by the end of the decade.

Interest vs. Appetite for Investment

Experts make a key distinction between companies' curiosity and their willingness to spend heavily.

“In my view their curiosity is an high score, on a scale of one to 10. However, their readiness is a mid-range score, because there is significant uncertainty yet.”

Seasoned diplomats in the sector echo this caution. The expectation is that majors will publicly express enthusiasm while actually acting with extreme caution.

The Vast Price Tag

The required investment would be vast. University analysis suggest that increasing production by between half a million and a million bpd would require in excess of $10 billion in investment over two to three years.

However, rebuilding production to peak levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Outstanding Question of Government Backing

The suggestion of firms being compensated by the federal government has been repeatedly raised. However, concrete details on any guarantee have not yet been provided.

The absence of certainty is the primary factor for the sector's hesitation. Companies seek protection against political risk and the chance that a different administration could renege on any agreement.

“You need to be insured against nationalization, that we’ve seen in Venezuela already.”

In summary, while political promises runs high, the practical risks suggest a road of slow deliberation for potential significant venture in the country's energy industry.